Humanitarians undertook a thorough, multi-stakeholder shock analysis assessing that 9.1 million Somalis were affected by a humanitarian crisis. 47 percent of the country’s population is affected by conflict, floods, drought, disease outbreaks (AWD/Cholera, measles) and displacement that disrupt lives and livelihoods, creating humanitarian needs. For each of these five shocks, timelines and thresholds were established in accordance with the IASC Guidance to effectively capture their present impact on the humanitarian situation.
Flooding and drought are increasingly alternating among Somalia, with dire consequences for agriculture and livestock that are key to livelihoods and food security. Apart from ongoing recovery from the effects of the historic 2023 drought and late 2023 flooding, Somalia is again on the verge of a multi-season drought period. Climate shocks are recurrent against a backdrop of decades of conflict, development deficits, widespread poverty and governance challenges, that have eroded coping capacities, increased humanitarian aid dependency and undermined resilience. Shorten climate cycles are further enhanced by climate change, with increased temperatures and erratic rainfall are certain to bring water scarcity and heat-related deaths by 2030 and reduce agricultural productivity and exacerbate flooding risks.
Due to flooding, which displaced 268,000 people and 81,000 people between mid-April and mid-May 2024, was largely due to Gu (April to May) rains. In spite of a staggered onset and early cessation.
