The Ethiopian strategy in the Red Sea has become an increasing security concern to all the countries along the Red Sea coast. Ethiopia has been pursuing its long term objectives through creating a geopolitical environment that is, on most occasions, antagonistic to peace in the region, puts Somalia at odds, weakens the Islamic countries and uses their conflicts to achieve her aims.
The Ethiopian actions are never base on unfounded reasoning. They are based on the desire to ensure that power cuts is concentration around them whereby none of the powerful governments in the region such as Somalia comes to life. The ambitions towards the Somali government are very self-centrally motivated and aimed towards maintenance of the status quo where Somalia is powerless to threaten Ethiopia’s Mediterranean ambitions, let alone being able to unite other countries in opposition towards Ethiopia’s plans.
Ethiopia’s domestic political affairs operate in such a manner as to perpetually disenfranchise some sections of the society. One third or approximately 34 percent of the entire population professes Muslim faith. Unfortunately, the majority of the people of Ethiopian origin are not free enough to choose their leaders or mobilize enough votes to make their representatives effective. For ages, military regimes have been gazing from the top and have established measures to prevent people of different ethnic background and religion from engaging in their country’s governance. The elite in power do this quite intentionally as a means to remain in power and resist any movements aimed at bringing progressive changes or democratization processes.
The Ankara Accord: A Setback in the Mediation Process and France’s Plan B
Also, there were some questions as to how relevant Turkey’s role as a mediator was in the accord. Turkey on the other hand has indeed been a steadfast supporter of Somalia – extending development aid parliamentary human assistance and even military cooperation – However, this has cast doubts on their neutrality in the conclusion of this agreement. In doing so Turkey views Somalia as ‘a recipient of aid’ and Ethiopia as ‘a country working with Somalia’ which poses the risk of the Turkish partnership being out of balance with these two countries.
Some say that Turkey was able to exert its influence over Somalia to clinch the deal which was very much in Ethiopia’s favour. Such an outcome where Ethiopia is provided with Ethiopia a stretch of coastline would be an important milestone for the estuary countries. On the other hand this would ‘offend’ the territorial sovereignty of Somalia. Additionally, an arrangement such as this could position Turkey to increase its influence over Ethiopia and such an arrangement would, however, seek to protect its strategic partnership and sacrifice Somalia’s territorial and lasting security.
The situation in the region becomes even more complex due to the participation of France. Emmanuel macron of France conversing with Ethiopian leaders on matters regarding an access to sea. France also has an underlying desire to contain the expansion of China in the region. While Ethiopia has potential through Djbouti’s aid in terms of port access, the encouragement France makes, about seeking more maritime options hints that considering the situation a number of foreign interests may be trying to steer Ethiopia to practice its maritime interests to other regions more probably to Somalia.
This dynamic has alarmed observers who view Somalia as a pawn in a larger geopolitical game. While France may be trying their best in the attempt to expand their influence to cut to the quick of the Chinese foothold, the result from such moves for Somalia can be greatly unhelpful.
Ethiopia’s Primary Targets: Sudan, Eritrea, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti and Egypt
Ethiopia’s broader grand plan does not only focus on Somalia but also targets the neutralization of other primary countries along the red sea which includes Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Take the recent violence for example in Sudan — this is not a simple internal conflict, it is part of a very big plan to undermine the country ensuring that it does not support Ethiopia. By bringing about chaos in Sudan, against weakening of the country, Ethiopia is planning to broaden its scope and strengthen its presence in the region.
A nation that is also within the eye of Ethiopia is Djibouti, and this nation is encircled by the Red Sea. It is rather a blunder on the part of Ethiopia to disregard the cooperative effort between Djibouti and the country. Instead, it reveals the broader strategy that Ethiopia has always had in mind: to fight off and take control of Djibouti. Ethiopia then positioned herself well to execute a sudden coup d’état, and to…